Idolator
Last night American Idol firmed up its top 12, sending home the tone-challenged Kady Malloy, the everything-challenged Luke Menard, the doomed-by-singing-Whitney Asia'h Epperson, and the unfairly vanquished Danny Noriega. What remains are 12 youngish singers whose home-audience appeal ranges from the utterly grating to the somewhat understandable to the surprisingly charming. After the jump, my odds of who will win, presented in the rough order of how I think the final 12 singers will be sent home from the competition.
Jason Castro: 2-1. Yes, this pick is partly derived from the fact that he's my sentimental favorite. But his gentle-stoner quality gives him a likeability that none of the other contestants have really cultivated at this point—and that may even carry him through disco night.
David Cook: 7-5. Probably wouldn't have been as much of a threat for the top spot in the pre-instrument-on-stage years, but his Incubus-inspired version of "Hello"—Brandon Davis, how have you not made a stink about this yet?—gave him the "new Daughtry" mantel, thus giving the producers hope that another Idol alum might actually sell records once again.
David Archuleta: 3-1. Sure, he's the chosen one, but something tells me that even the most cheek-pinch-prone grandma is going to get sick of his holier-than-thou schtick by the time Idol Gives Back rolls around. (Plus the heavy breathing and lip-licking are not suited to HD watching of the show.)
Brooke White: 5-2. The only one of the women with any real shot, although she should leave the world-wearier songs alone because her persona doesn't really carry them.
Carly Smithson: 10-1. I'm warming up to her, but is America?
Amanda Overmyer: 15-1. Won't make it past the top 6, and if Vote For The Worst switches its endorsement last-minute won't make it into the top 10.
David Hernandez: 15-1. I was happy that he made it after all the stripper allegations, although part of me wonders if he got a pity spot after some producer shenanigans. Will be safe as long as he reimagines his songs in the style of George Michael.
Syesha Mercado: 20-1. Utterly meh. I do wish I could have hair like hers though.
Ramiele Malubay: 20-1. The only person whose name I had to try and remember while putting together this list. Will string together another four or so ballady performances before she's bounced.
Chikeze: 40-1. Hands up if you thought he was going home when Ryan brought him to the middle of the stage with Danny Noriega.
Michael Johns: 40-1. Will Randy think that whatever Beatles song he sings next week was actually an INXS original? Tune in and find out!
Kristy Lee Cook: 75-1. Total fluke who's in Alex Lushington's rightful place. Will be the first to go after her dreadful country-lite rendition of "Anytime At All."
[Photo: AP]
Comments
I want you to be right about Johns and Smithson, but I think you're underestimating how hard the judges will try to will them into the top five. Again, hope I'm wrong.
Do you actually watch the show in HD?
LOL at the INXS joke!
I question the impact of Vote for the Worst. They've been pushing Danny Noriega for weeks, and he still got voted off.
@Chris Molanphy: I do. (It definitely helps the quality of the pictures that I take of my TV.) I actually switched to HD viewing right before the last audition episodes, and those big pans of the crowd were completely transformed.
@Maura Johnston: Welcome to the party.
I agree on all counts. However, this seems to be the first season of Idol in a long time without a lot of country singers. For that reason alone, Kristy Lee Cook may hang in there for a while.
I totally feared Chikeze was going home, although I actually liked both of them. I really thought there was a silent gay voting bloc out there that would get Danny Noriega through to the final 12.
@Chris N.: Teh gays are voting for the Mormon. I have no idea why.
@whoneedslight: last year only had one country singer (phil) in the top 12 too.
[www.americanidol.com]
Brandon Davis?
@Maura Johnston: Except he didn't realize he was a country singer until a week or two before he got booted! Remember? The judges told Stacey, "Y'know, you sound good singing country -- maybe you should try that more often." Kid's totally releasing Nashville material now, and it was all the show's doing; he thought he was a pop singer going in.
@Maura Johnston:
Okay, my memory is shaky. I drink. Still, now they have someone to throw their votes at.
@Maura Johnston: I just realized that you didn't mention Blake Lewis. My god, did he suck or what?
@Maura: @Chris Molanphy: @Chris N.:
1) I think Maura is underestimating Chikeze (10). I like him, a lot, and I think he has the potential to stick around for a while. I think he really stepped it up this week, and if he can stick around one more week -- likely, in a field that includes Kristy Lee and Amanda, at least -- he'll start to develop a stronger following. Plus, look at how "white" that picture is. He and Syesha can really stand out if they R&B-flavor their numbers.
2) I also think Maura is overestimating Brooke (4), and underestimating Carly (5) -- and America's preferences for them. Carly's got the goods, and I think her biggest challenges will be whether she connects with the audience personality-wise (Melinda Doolittle) and whether fans will always think she's safe and not vote for her (Daughtry?). As for Brooke, Maura's previous write-ups were pretty lukewarm about her, while Maura's sense of where the voting was going has been very good. Stick with your instincts, I'd say.
@extracrispy: Probably because he's a closet Pocket Gay!
Since Danny (my favorite Pocket Gay) was eliminated last night, I'm transferring the love to a fellow gay Mormon. I don't know about anyone else's reasons.
Idol performances are apparently able to chart on iTunes top songs...right now Jason Castro is in the top 100. Things are spread pretty thin right now with 12 contestants, but imagine when there are only a few contestants left; the iTunes rankings might become a big player in the voting.
Could have sworn Brooke White was at least 27, but she's apparently 24. David's probably there for the unintentional laugh factor. There was a little short guy like him last year I think? Didn't get too far, as far as Hernandez should have gotten.
I can't imagine, no pun intended, attending a concert to watch Little Archie perform. Certainly he has a good voice, but with all the tongue flipping in evidence, I'd be too distracted to hear what the kid's singing. Happens to me when I watch him now - hello - HD TV.
Then the gasping part...last week as he sprightly raced like a wee leprechaun to his chrome toned seat, his wheezing had me concerned his inhaler was hopefully nearby.
I am loving the flowers-in-his-dreads guy. Those pics from the AI Top 12 extravaganza made me smile. "Hallelujah", hippy boy!
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